Spectrum
Spectrum

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Tuesday, July 10 2007 @ 3:03pm

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FCC Chairman Talks Up Open-Access Wireless Networks

Just last month, we noted how FCC Chairman Kevin Martin sounds like a broken record when it comes to telecom policy, always covering the same ground with his same old ideas of what constitutes a competitive market. Maybe the summer heat has gotten to him, but he's now gone and changed all that, as he's getting ready to propose dramatic new rules for the upcoming 700 MHz wireless spectrum license auction, mandating that winners of licenses for a third of the spectrum build open-access networks -- networks that allow any compatible device to connect and for any service to be run across them. The 700 MHz spectrum is pretty prime real estate, as these things go: there's a lot of spectrum that will be available, and the low frequency gives it excellent propagation and building-penetration characteristics. There's been a lot of talk from tech companies and other groups about handling these licenses differently than previous ones, in order to encourage the development of broadband wireless networks that offer real competition to fixed-line networks. Typically, this entails mandating that license winners build wholesale networks which sell access to any service provider that wants to then sell the service on to consumers. While Martin's draft of rules doesn't go that far, it does offer a significant change to how wireless spectrum licenses have typically been sold and regulated. Unsurprisingly, the trade group of cellular operators isn't happy, and says that there's no need to regulate what it sees as a perfectly competitive marketplace. Whether or not the cell phone service market is competitive is an argument for another day, but it's pretty clear that as things stand now, it doesn't have much of a competitive impact on the broadband market, which is still largely a duopoly of cable and telephone companies. The operators hope to use their deep pockets to buy up as much spectrum as possible -- not just to use it themselves, but to keep it out of the hands of any potential new entrants that could come into the market and actually compel them to compete.

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Wireless Devices
Wireless Devices

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Friday, July 6 2007 @ 9:41am

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Nobody Loves Palm (And Really, Why Should They?)

There have been long-running rumors that Palm was up for sale, with the things getting so ridiculous that at one point it looked like they were made up to boost the share price. The company has never been sold, though private equity firm Elevation Partners bought a 25% stake last month and brought in some new management. Some people wondered at the time if Palm went down this road because it couldn't find anybody interested in buying the whole company; an SEC filing about the Elevation deal suggests that this was indeed the case. The deal in and of itself does nothing to solve Palm's long-standing problems (and neither will its recently announced and wholly underwhelming Foleo product), and in the meantime the bad news rolls on: Palm also said this week that devices using a Linux-based follow-up to Palm OS 5 -- like it's been talking about since 2004 -- have been delayed until next year.

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Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Thursday, July 5 2007 @ 6:31pm

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The Downside Of The Muni WiFi Hype Cycle Rolls On

Municipal WiFi got hyped up to such ridiculous levels that it was bound to be seen as a failure, often by the same media that whipped up expectations in the first place. Now, in Toronto, the paper notes that the citywide WiFi network there has seen usage fall since its free trial period ended. What? You mean more people will use a WiFi network when it's free than when they have to pay? Shocking, we know. The company behind the network says that it's converting more free users to paid subscribers than it had planned, but that doesn't seem to placate the reporter of the original story, who manages to work in another yarn of hype by saying the WiFi network "may soon be irrelevant" because of the emergence of WiMAX. In reality, the approach of Toronto Hydro, the company that built and runs the network, seems pretty good. Its interest began with using WiFi for a pragmatic purpose -- remote meter reading -- and it then decided to extend its network to offer public internet access. The company's public network now covers only six square kilometers, and it's waiting to attract a sufficient number of users before expanding citywide, rather than jumping in whole-hog and experiencing the problems other providers have faced when launching much bigger networks. This relentless build-'em-up-then-knock-'em-down hype cycle doesn't help anybody, but when it comes to muni WiFi, it doesn't look like it's going to stop anytime soon.

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Wireless Devices
Wireless Devices

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Thursday, July 5 2007 @ 2:40pm

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Don't Buy In To Those iPhone Per-Unit Profits Just Yet

Soon after the release of every new Apple product (and other companies' new gadgets as well), some analysts tear one open and try to figure out how much its components cost to get an idea of the margins on each unit that's sold. A recent teardown of the iPhone suggested a per-unit cost of $200 for the 4 GB version, and $220 for the 8 GB one, suggesting that Apple's making a huge profit on each iPhone it sells. But, as Stephen Wildstrom at BusinessWeek points out, taking these teardown estimates too seriously can be foolish. As he notes, the cost of many of the components -- including the device's centerpiece, that huge, glorious touchscreen -- is little more than a guess at this point. But perhaps more importantly, focusing on the components' cost ignores the not inconsiderable costs Apple sunk into developing and marketing the iPhone. Certainly the iPhone has the potential to reap huge profits for Apple, but it's a little premature to be tallying up the figures just yet. Furthermore, as the initial supply looks to be drying up, it's worth wondering just how long Apple can keep the sales momentum going.

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The Market
The Market

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Thursday, June 28 2007 @ 11:05am

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Apple, iPhone, Irrational Exuberance, Etc.

You might have heard that Apple's released a mobile phone tomorrow. Since this "iPhone" device was announced back in January, a nice $34 billion or so has been added to Apple's market cap by investors. Breaking Views compares that to Nokia's market cap, which stands at $108 billion -- despite the fact that it will sell 55 times more handsets than Apple at the end of the year. The piece argues that the $34 billion increase in Apple's market cap reflects investors' perceived value of Apple's phone business, and using Apple's reported margins of 13% -- which happen to be identical to Nokia's -- the phone business is valued at 100 times projected 2008 operating profits. Nokia trades at a much lower 10 times multiple, leading the site to conclude that either it's badly undervalued, or Apple is massively overvalued. Perhaps that's true, though the runup in Apple's share price reflects the ridiculous level of hype and expectations for the iPhone, and it's something that could change quite quickly should the device not prove to be an overwhelming success. Furthermore, it just reinforces the reality that stock prices are disconnected from a company's underlying business, and often have far more to do with investors' perception of a company than financial reality. Also, watch for Apple stock to tumble a few points Friday, as investors dump their shares so they can finance their own iPhone purchases.

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(Mis)Uses Of Technology
(Mis)Uses Of Technology

Contributed by Mike Masnick

Wednesday, June 20 2007 @ 10:15am

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French Officials Can't Resist Their Crackberries, Even If It Means Giving Secrets To American Spies

We've all heard the RIM Blackberry referred to as a "Crackberry" for its supposedly addictive nature... however, we never thought that it was true that anyone really couldn't do without their Blackberry mobile device. Apparently the French government has banned the devices for certain government officials who might email sensitive information. Since RIM has all emails run through its own servers, some of which reside in the US, the French government is worried (perhaps reasonably so) that American spies are snooping on their sensitive emails. However, apparently many French government officials just can't let go and are still using Blackberry devices on the sly... even if it means sending classified info. What's odd is that various officials say they can't find anything else that works quite like the Blackberry, even though there are more and more solutions that do -- and many of them don't require emails to go through special servers in the US.

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Wireless Carriers
Wireless Carriers

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Monday, June 11 2007 @ 10:30am

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The Real Loser In Amp'd's Bankruptcy: Mobile Porn

As the dust continues to settle around virtual operator Amp'd, which recently filed for bankruptcy, the New York Times has a rather bizarre article focusing on some of the collateral damage. Namely, it says that the growth of mobile porn will be stunted by the filing, since apparently Amp'd was the closest of any US carrier to selling porn, as it "let subscribers download pictures of fully clothed pornography stars and models." US operators have thus far resisted selling adult content, both because they don't have systems in place to restrict minors' access to the content (also known as the porn license) and because they fear the backlash of being seen as porn purveyors. Of course, plenty of third-party mobile porn shops exist outside carriers' content decks, but apparently that's not good enough to assuage the NYT's fears for this nascent industry.

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Overhype
Overhype

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Wednesday, June 6 2007 @ 1:19pm

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Here Come The iPhone 'Rivals'

As the June 29th release date of the iPhone draws closer, the circle of hype around it swells even more, particularly among members of the media for whom the functionality of the iPhone represents something new -- even when it isn't. A side effect of this will see plenty of new handsets labeled "iPhone rivals", simply because they're mobile phones. But some companies are coming out with devices that mimic the iPhone in many ways -- such as Microsoft's favorite white-label manufacturer, HTC, which has announced its touchscreen-driven "iPhone rival", creatively named the Touch. Of course, there's only one problem: the touchscreen interface sucks, and is apparently barely usable. Plenty of devices will, unfairly or not, get compared to the iPhone by the media. But if your company is going to portray one of its own devices as a worthy competitor to the iPhone, it would help if it was actually a decent product in its own right.

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Deals of Interest
Deals of Interest

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Monday, June 4 2007 @ 2:19pm

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PE Takes A Bite Out Of Palm

Rumors about a buyout of Palm have been doing the rounds for months, but hadn't come to fruition. Today, however, Elevation Partners, the Silicon Valley private-equity firm which counts Bono among its partners says it's buying 25% of Palm in a somewhat complicated deal. Existing shareholders will be getting some cash in exchange for their reduced stake, while Elevation Partners gets a quarter of the company and will install a number of new personnel. Jon Rubenstein, an Apple veteran that oversaw the company's iPod unit, will come in as executive chairman and head of product development, replacing co-founder Jeff Hawkins in the latter role. It's slightly interesting timing, given that Hawkins oversaw the development of the Foleo, the "smartphone companion" product that was announced last week to a widely underwhelming response. On the face of it, this deal and injection of some fresh thinking sounds like exactly what Palm needs to survive in a market with which it's increasingly out of step. Palm's problems may be the cause for the complicated deal, with one writer wondering if it went down this road because nobody was interested in buying the whole company. The deal won't immediately solve any of Palm's long-running problems, but it does offer some hope for the company over the longer term -- and with several ex-Apple execs now on board, the thought is that Palm's in a similar position to Apple before the iPod, and the hope is that it will follow the same path.

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Wireless Carriers
Wireless Carriers

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Monday, June 4 2007 @ 12:09pm

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Didn't See This One Coming, No Not At All -- Amp'd Files For Bankruptcy

About two years ago, a group of execs that had founded the successful Boost Mobile youth-focused brand for Nextel announced they were starting a new virtual mobile operator called Amp'd. Amp'd would also target young users, but it would differentiate itself by charging high prices and, in exchange, offer all sorts of multimedia content. From the outset, we were skeptical because the company was focusing on content, and not communication -- a strategy that's proved untenable for other MVNOs, and similarly failed for Amp'd, so it was forced to try and attract users by slashing voice prices. Still, the company's business plan (poor strategy and all) helped it pull in $360 million in venture funding, with a good chunk of that coming even after the company displayed an inability to attract subscribers. So, in what's one of the least surprising pieces of news we've seen in a while, Amp'd has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The company spins bankruptcy by saying, "As a result of our rapid growth, our back-end infrastructure was unable to keep up with customer demand." The company was beset by operational problems (as well as poor strategy), so there's some truth in that, but with so few users, it's not much of an excuse. Amp'd says it hopes to secure more financing and keep operating, though its top creditors are Verizon Wireless, its network provider, and Motorola, which provides it with handsets, owing them a combined $49 million. We would say that Amp'd will have a hard time finding more investment, but given that the company was able to raise so much money from VCs even after it was clear it was headed for the deadpool, you never know.

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Wireless Devices
Wireless Devices

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Wednesday, May 30 2007 @ 11:15am

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Stick A Fork In Palm

Palm had done its best to whip up a frenzy leading up to today's announcement from founder Jeff Hawkins about some new mystery product. Well, it's here, and despite Hawkins' proclamation that it's "the most exciting product" he's ever worked on, the Foleo "smartphone companion" isn't exactly overwhelming. Basically, it's a $500 screen and keyboard for Treo smartphones, which the company is pitching as an email device. The Foleo syncs to a user's Treo inbox over Bluetooth, and lets users view and compose emails, and it features an Opera web browser and a photo-viewing application. Despite being based on Linux, it's a closed system, meaning users can't install their own applications and extend the device's usefulness. So apparently, "the future of computing", as Hawkins sees it, is in closed environments where a manufacturer decides exactly what a user can and can't do with their device.

It's hard to understand the point of the Foleo, or why Hawkins and Palm think it's so wonderful. There are two ways to see it: first, as an admission that Palm won't ever be able to create a Treo that will satisfy users' needs, or an admission that they think their Treos are perfect and this is the only way they can figure out to improve on it. Neither is particularly good for the company. The Foleo's hardly compelling, when $500 fully-featured laptops are pretty common these days, while the future lies in crafting more powerful and useful smartphones, not in simply relegating them to serve as a modem for a redundant bigger device. The unspoken marketing message here is that users need to shell out for the Foleo on top of a Treo because the smartphone doesn't deliver an acceptable user experience for mobile email. Palm would be far better off improving its outdated smartphones, instead of focusing on creating new (and pointless) product lines, but it's really beginning to look like that's asking too much of the company. Update: As noted in the comments, apparently the Foleo is open to external applications. As Palm puts it, "Its Linux-based operating system and built-in Wi-Fi radio make it easy for developers to create new applications that can be installed with a single click in the browser" -- though Palm's not released any information for developers, nor given any indication of how strongly it will engage the open-source community.

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Studies
Studies

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Friday, May 25 2007 @ 1:01pm

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Mobile Internet Use Thriving -- In The Toilet

Last year, a study said that a third of British people made phone calls while naked, and another found that nearly 4 out of 10 Americans thought it was okay to talk on the phone while in the bathroom. These, of course, came after a 2005 study that found half of WiFi users have surfed the net from inside the can. Building on all three of those is a new survey from T-Mobile in the UK, which says that 15 percent of the UK adult workforce "hides" in the bathroom to go online with their mobile phones, apparently mostly to get around their employers' bans or restrictions on using the web. Apparently there's quite an audience of web users inside bathrooms; when will crafty entrepreneurs start doing more to capitalize on this captive market?

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Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi

Contributed by Derek Kerton

Wednesday, May 23 2007 @ 6:49pm

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Wi-Fi / Cellular Converged Devices: When Is The Tipping Point?

Some people have been heralding the coming of hybrid devices that combine Wi-Fi VoIP with cellular for many years, but so far, their impact has been minimal. A recent conference in Amsterdam heard from a group of telco execs who had experimented with dual-mode offerings, and the conclusions were: "Operators have trouble finding customers for combined deals offering fixed and mobile services." Apparently, despite market offerings, consumers are disinterested in the services that offer few handset choices and are complicated to use. Meanwhile, according to Johnathan Collision, who is responsible for convergence for Czech O2 (good name), the corporate world has a better appreciation of dual-mode devices. All of this would have been news if we hadn't predicted specifically these market realities in 2004 and in less detail in 2003. The conclusion of my 2004 post was, "For the next few years, sign me up as skeptical." But now that those few years have passed, we need to revisit this topic. A lot of the old Wi-Fi problems are being mitigated: QoS is emerging, power consumption is improved, throughput and range are improved, costs have dropped, seamless hand-off technologies exist. Also, smartphones are growing in market share, and smartphone users want Wi-Fi for fast and cheap access to data services and VoIP. As the conference in Amsterdam concluded, today isn't the heyday of hybrid cellular/WLAN devices, but I think we may be close to a tipping point. It's an uphill battle, but over the next few years, sign me up as optimistic.

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Ramblings
Ramblings

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Wednesday, May 23 2007 @ 11:00am

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EU Regulators, Meet Unintended Consequences

The EU has finally approved caps on international roaming charges, with the regulations set to be in place by the end of June. Outgoing calls for EU subscribers traveling around the continent will be capped at 49 eurocents per minute, with incoming calls at 24 cents. That sounds great, except that it will actually raise the prices for some calls. So in addition to raising rates outside the EU as well as raising domestic rates, calls within the EU could also be more expensive thanks to these regulator-imposed price "cuts". Like we've called it before, this is balloon squeezing -- maybe something goes down, but all the rest goes up -- and hardly represents effective or sound regulation.

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Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Tuesday, May 22 2007 @ 11:59am

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Avis Looks To Take Out The Market Selling WiFi Access To Travelers

Avis this week launched its Avis Connect service, the WiFi-hotspot-in-a-car service it first announced at the beginning of the year. For $10.95 a day, renters can get a WiFi access point that's backhauled over an EV-DO connection, so it should offer speeds of 500 to 800 kbps. But the device isn't attached to the car users rent, so they can take it with them into their hotel, or anywhere else they go. The cost is very competitive with many paid WiFi offerings, particularly those in the many hotels that still charge for it, and it has the additional utility of being portable and supporting multiple users -- so it has quite a good chance of success. However, perhaps what's more interesting is to see how Avis is striving to differentiate itself in a field of what's essentially commodity offerings. Car-rental firms have tried to compete with frequent-renter programs and quick-checkout systems, but they're all basically at parity. These sorts of add-ons, like internet access or GPS navigation or satellite radio, could become useful differentiators among companies. Perhaps they'll also see the rental firms become like some discount airlines, where the plane ticket is a loss leader, and the real revenues come from all the extras.

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Ramblings
Ramblings

Contributed by Derek Kerton

Tuesday, May 22 2007 @ 11:38am

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Where Is Skype's Competition?

I'm re-re-visiting my position on Skype. Techdirt writers were early Skype users and fans of the service, but as the hype-storm gathered, we became relatively pessimistic about Skype's ability to justify valuations, despite all the publicity. Our arguments: while Skype works well and has legions of users, there were two key problems: 1) it's legions of users were people seeking "free" products and that's not the best kind of customer, even in volume; 2) Very little of the Skype technology is special, and the position Skype held looked very susceptible to competition from the main portal/IM brands.

But a couple of years after we predicted that Yahoo, Google and MSFT would respond and claw back Skype's customers, so far we've seen little response from these camps. Yes, they've improved and beefed up their voice components, but still it's been an anemic response given the importance of owning voice communications and the user's "Buddy list". The big portals still don't penetrate firewalls like Skype can, they don't offer the same reliability, and they've done almost nothing with respect to marketing their voice services. As a result, Skype is progressing quite nicely, unimpeded by credible competition. Hardware vendors (Linksys, D-Link, V-Tech, Uniden, etc.) are building innovative Skype devices while Telcos (Three UK, Vodafone, etc.) are working with Skype and Walmart is set to retail Skype-based products. While we may not be seeing the integration eBay promised us, we are seeing Skype progress into the mainstream on its own. It's not too late for the portals to still carve out a slice of this market, but it is too late for them to drive Skype into irrelevance. Skype still has it's challenges (growth is slowing, US penetration is low) but it's been very kind of the portals to give Skype the time to persevere.

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Spectrum
Spectrum

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Tuesday, May 22 2007 @ 11:03am

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Google Wants To Auction Spectrum Now, Too

Google's been talking about wireless spectrum for a while now, both as part of a coalition asking for the white space around TV channels to be opened up, but it's also been mentioned as a possible bidder in the upcoming 700 MHz spectrum auctions later this year. While Google's not commenting on whether or not it will bid on the spectrum, it has made a proposal to the FCC to allow for a "real-time airwaves auction model" for it. Google wants to set up a system for the spectrum that would work much like AdWords does, only instead of advertisers bidding for impressions, service providers would be bidding for spectrum. While we're supportive of ways to make spectrum more flexible and useful, and support the idea of allowing spectrum to be leased and sold in general, it's hard to see a lot of benefit in Google's plan. It says the auction would allow for spectrum to be fully utilized by letting companies easily auction off excess in real-time. That may be true, but it seems unlikely that there will be a lot of interest from potential bidders. Short-term leases that carry few guarantees aren't exactly attractive if you're trying to build a sustainable business -- for instance, it's not a great idea to start up a mobile broadband service one month, then tell your customers that you're sorry, but you got outbid this month, so you've gone dark, but they can be sure and check back next month to see if the service is up again. Perhaps the bottom line here is that spectrum owners should have the flexibility to do something like this, or lease their spectrum another way, should they see fit. But simply having that ability doesn't automatically make it a good idea to do so.

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Wireless Applications
Wireless Applications

Contributed by Derek Kerton

Monday, May 21 2007 @ 6:03pm

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Verizon Announces V CAST Song Recognition Service

Verizon proudly announced a new service called V CAST Song ID, which subscribers can use to recognize music that they hear playing by holding their phones at the sound source and letting a server listen-in. The server runs a "digital fingerprint" application which matches the notes being heard against a database of over 4 Million songs. The BREW applet then launches the V CAST store where the customer can buy the full song, a ringtone, ringback tone, or other media associated with the musician. VZW is promoting it with TV, print ads and a big media spend, going so far as to jibe at the competition: "...At a time when some of our competitors won't even allow you to download your music over-the-air, Verizon Wireless is pushing forward by offering Song ID for free. We'll help you find the music you love, then make it easy for you to buy." said the VZW Chief Marketing Officer. OK, we get it, this is a pretty cool app, but let's not get carried away here: Didn't we see exactly this same app from AT&T Wireless in 2004? Didn't Motorola embed it in phones in 2005? Virgin Mobile already has the app, too. As an industry, we need to do better than blow our own horns for launching a product just three years after the fastest competitor!

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Wireless Carriers
Wireless Carriers

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Monday, May 21 2007 @ 10:15am

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Private Equity Enters The Wireless Space In A Big Way

A group of private equity firms are buying Alltel for $27.5 billion, capping off months-long speculation about the future of the company. While the scale of the deal is pretty huge, it's not all that surprising: there's been a lot of momentum lately in private-equity buyouts, as robust debt markets are making it easy for buyout firms to get financing. Also, Alltel -- which has quietly become the country's fifth-largest mobile operator by rolling up smaller regional firms -- still doesn't have a nationwide footprint, but in some sense, that's part of the reason the company was an attractive buyout target, since it means the company has plenty of room to grow. This buyout could represent something of a tipping point in the industry as fresh blood, unencumbered by legacy telco thinking, comes into the market looking for aggressive growth and kicks off a round of strong competition. Alltel already has something of a track record for this, as its My Circle plan, which lets users pick a handful of numbers (either wireless or landline, and on any carrier) and call them for free, forced other operators to respond with similar offerings. The deal could also see Alltel become a significant player in the upcoming FCC auction for 700 MHz spectrum, which was already expected to be highly contested, should its new buyers want to secure the spectrum necessary to build out a nationwide mobile broadband network.

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Wireless Applications
Wireless Applications

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Thursday, May 17 2007 @ 12:29pm

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Exclusivity Worked So Well For Mobile ESPN The First Time, So Why Not Try It Again?

ESPN's virtual operator failed spectacularly when hardly anybody cared about its content and data services enough to make them want to switch mobile operators, and pay premium prices to boot. We argued at the time that ESPN should stick to its content distribution roots and sell its content through as many outlets as possible. The company has now revived its mobile operations, and will be just a content provider -- but it's signed an exclusive deal with Verizon Wireless. Users who subscribe to Verizon's V CAST content service, and who have one of a handful of compatible handsets, will be able to get the ESPN data application and services for free as part of their subscription. On a strategic level, it's hard to understand the logic here. After all, as we've pointed out, would ESPN ever offer its cable channels through an exclusive deal with a single provider? Of course not. On a tactical level, though, this was about the only option ESPN had, since the apps it used with the MVNO were all for the BREW platform, and Verizon's the only operator with a nationwide presence that uses it. So there's another strategic misstep: developing for a closed platform that's only used by a single operator. There's nothing like taking steps to limit your own potential market to ensure the success of your business.

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Wireless Devices
Wireless Devices

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Tuesday, May 15 2007 @ 10:34am

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Will Zander's Smoke and Mirrors Be Enough To Save His Job?

Motorola continues to struggle as it hunts for a device to follow up the success of the RAZR. Last week, the company's CEO, Ed Zander, intimated that big things were in store from the company, and would be announced at an event today -- in particular, he talked up a movie-playing phone. So what's the company announce today for its renewed attack on the mobile handset market? Four products it had already announced, and the next-generation RAZR, creatively titled the RAZR 2. The idea is that consumers will flock to the update and pay a premium price for it, but it's hard to see people paying a high price for 2005's fad. While Zander proudly talks up how the RAZR has sold almost 100 million units, he leaves out how many of those sales came only after deep price cuts. Featurewise, the device isn't particularly exciting, and it's hard to explain the reannouncements of the other four products. The company says it has more high-end, feature-rich devices in the pipeline, but they're nowhere to be seen. It's hard to see today's event as much more than Zander trying some smoke and mirrors to polish the company's image -- and his own, which has taken a hit lately. But while he's showing off new products that aren't really new, Nokia's taking market share from slow-moving Motorola.

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Wireless Devices
Wireless Devices

Contributed by Derek Kerton

Thursday, May 10 2007 @ 5:30pm

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Motorola To Offer Movie-Playing Phone

Faced with relentless pressure from Carl Icahn, and desperate for a follow-up success to the RAZR, Motorola CEO Ed Zander addressed a crowd in Silicon Valley and promised that an upcoming handset would be a "media monster". FierceWireless has speculated that the handset in question may be the Z8, which we were shown at 3GSM earlier this year for EU release. Zander says the mystery phone, out next week, will be capable of playing video at a TV-grade 30fps. Most notably, though, the phone will play full-length movies and video content from SD memory cards. Motorola is working with content partners to seed the SD content ecosystem. I'm glad they are using an existing popular storage standard as opposed to proprietary systems, like Sony always uses to kill its own ecosystems. With SD, users could obviously also buy content online, and move it to the phone via SD, too. So I'll add that most importantly, this is another swipe against the expensive broadcast mobile video networks in that the cost of sneakernet to move the content to the mobile phone via SD is ~$0, while the cost of moving bits on unicast and broadcast networks is something higher. Ask the Long Distance companies how much fun it is to compete in a market where competitors have a $0 cost basis for your marquee product...

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(Mis)Uses Of Technology
(Mis)Uses Of Technology

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Wednesday, May 9 2007 @ 12:21pm

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Another Company Wants To Track Fido With GPS

Just four years after a Japanese company launched a similar product, a company in Sweden has announced the "world premier" of a GPS dog collar that lets owners keep track of their pets. The collar has a GPS chip and a cellular modem; when an owner sends an SMS to the collar, it responds with a message detailing its location in text or map form. Like GPS applications for tracking kids, the device can also trigger alarms if the dog wearing it wanders outside a preset zone. While the company behind the device says it can help solve dog owners' "worst nightmare", it's hard to imagine too many of them ponying up the cash for the device and ongoing service. These sorts of tracking applications are continually mentioned as part of the future -- but the only problem is that people don't really seem all that interested in them.

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Wireless Applications
Wireless Applications

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Wednesday, May 9 2007 @ 9:07am

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Remind Us Once Again Why We Need Contactless Payments?

The mobile payment space continues to grab a lot of interest, particularly as mobile operators envision being able to take a cut of every transaction their subscribers make with their phones. While these sorts of applications have found some success in Asia, they haven't seen a lot of interest among Western consumers. The problem is that many of these contactless payment systems are simply seeking to replace credit cards and pitch themselves as having added convenience for the user -- but that added convenience is minimal, making this a solution in search of a problem. Over at the Digital Money Forum, a blog about contactless payments and other new technologies in the banking and financial-services industry, a post talks about how a contactless payment system would have helped in a particular scenario the author witnessed. He then follows with an anecdote about some colleagues of his that went to Paris with the goal of not using any cash during their trip. They were successful, with the only problem they faced apparently nearly being stymied by a restaurant toilet that required 20 cents' payment. This would seem to undermine the claim that contactless payments are somehow necessary, or even desirable, since it's already somewhat easy in the west to largely get by without cash. Credit and debit cards already offer a convenient payment method for consumers, while retailers will be loathe to shell out for new point-of-sale equipment to handle contactless payments -- particularly when they're trying to push people away from using credit cards and their high processing fees. Until a contactless mobile platform can offer some additional benefits beyond credit-card replacement, they're not going to get very far in the West.

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Studies
Studies

Contributed by Derek Kerton

Tuesday, May 8 2007 @ 6:56pm

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Future WiMAX Better Than 2002 EV-DO

A couple of weeks ago, I criticized an InStat report which I thought had a questionable premise, and a sensationalist title "End Users Prefer WiMAX". I faced some criticism in the comments for coming to conclusions without knowing the full research methodology (possibly from an InStat rep?) Anyhow, in a current article, InStat analyst Daryl Schoolar elaborated on the methodology of the research. Specifically, respondents were asked to indicate their preference of:

1) cellular broadband at 400-800Kbps with a 5GB/mo cap and a $60-$70 price tag and covering all major cities; or
2) WiMAX service at 2-4Mbps for $40-$50/mo with no usage cap and only covering your city and 1/3 of major US cities.

OK, in general I'm fine with that comparison, so long as it's positioned correctly. It's what's called a "scenario", and that scenario is a stacked deck, with a bias towards WiMAX based on some optimistic assumptions. It hardly provides conclusive evidence of whether people prefer one technology over the other. But I bashed this last time, so let's move on.

The linked article above is chiefly commentary from Jane Zweig of the Shosteck Group, who wonders if Mobile WiMAX will be the next Iridium. Remember that Iridium's plan was to capture a large share of the mobile phone market by offering service based from a global constellation of satellites. The problem was that in the 10 years it took Iridium to launch, GSM and CDMA had reached scale economies and spread from big city cores to suburbs and beyond, and only rural and developing regions were left for Iridium. Not a good addressable base to pay off billions in CapEx. Ms. Zweig suggests that similarly, mobile WiMAX may arrive too late to grab the dominant share of the market that proponents expect. I agree with her theory, and think there will be some reckoning for many WiMAX vendors. I said as much in my answer to InStat two weeks ago - cellular isn't standing still, and will respond to WiMAX. But on the other hand, it's unlikely mobile WiMAX will flame-out as badly as Iridium. It takes 10 years to get a satellite constellation operating in orbit, but mobile WiMAX is likely to emerge in nascent form by 2008. It will get a share of the market.

BTW, it's probably fair to note that, in general, InStat produces some of the best research and data about the mobile market, and no I'm not being coerced or paid to say so.

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Wireless OS
Wireless OS

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Tuesday, May 8 2007 @ 10:58am

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Sun Announces New Java-Based Mobile OS, Again Promises Write Once, Run Anywhere

A small company called SavaJe gathered some interest a few years ago when several big operators invested in it, supporting its development of a Java-based mobile operating system. It was widely believed that the operators were merely supporting SavaJe as a tool in their fight with handset vendors over handset customization. Once they won that fight, their interest in SavaJe waned, and the company went under last fall, and Sun bought its remaining assets. Today, Sun has announced JavaFX Mobile, a Linux- and Java-based operating system apparently based on the remnants of the SavaJe OS. Sun CEO Jonathan Schwartz says that JavaFX will fulfill the "write once, run anywhere" promise of Java -- a promise that has gone wholly unfulfilled in the mobile arena, as each manufacturer has implemented Java Micro Edition in their handsets in a different way, creating a morass of incompatibility and fragmentation. Given that, it's hard to accept his claim at face value. Sure, for devices using the JavaFX Mobile platform, there might be compatibility -- but that's akin to saying that "write once, run anywhere" holds true for Windows Mobile applications, since they'll run anywhere, as long as that anywhere means a device running Windows Mobile.

There are so many technologies looking to reduce fragmentation in the mobile market -- Flash Lite, Java ME, and so on -- that have done very little to do actually do so. The biggest problem they face is that they ignore the billions of handsets already in the market, the vast majority of which can't be easily updated to support new technologies. So when Adobe or Sun talks about reducing fragmentation by introducing some new technology, they're already facing an uphill battle, since they must convince content and application developers to support technologies that are inaccessible to most of the market. With the abysmal track record of Java ME in this space, and the big unfulfilled promises it's left behind, it's easy to be skeptical about what Sun is saying. JavaFX might find some success as a cheap and easy alternative to proprietary operating systems from some vendors (particularly for making white-label devices for mobile operators), but its overall impact on the market doesn't look like it will be too significant at this point.

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Wireless Infrastructure
Wireless Infrastructure

Contributed by Derek Kerton

Wednesday, May 2 2007 @ 11:34am

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TV Broadcasters Also Threaten Mobile Video

Mobile video has it's share of uncertainty. Do users even want it? Then there is an industry debate between unicast and broadcast. Then there is the Elephant in the corner that I think is the biggest threat to carriers, Modio, Hiwire, and Qualcomm: sideloading. But let's not neglect another powerful threat: existing TV Broadcasters also are intent on continuing to own the role of broadcaster, and extending that role to the mobile space. The National Association of Broadcasters formed the Open Mobile Video Coalition with the intent of broadcasting their local TV content in a digital format suitable for specially equipped mobile phones. While this strategy has already become reality in Japan, where phone users can tune into free broadcast digital TV, it is no slam dunk in the US, where phone subsidies run high. The customers will like 'free'. But any mobile video solution that cuts the carriers out of the loop is unlikely to appear in any handset that is subsidized by the carriers. Thus, phones that pick up free TV signals are likely to cost $200 more than similar counterparts - that's not free. If the cellular market were a totally competitive market, then some carrier would "defect" and offer the free TV phones simply in order to stab at the competition, and win a few customers. But in an oligopoly, it is unlikely that the carriers will defect, and free broadcast TV phones won't get much traction.

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Wireless Messaging
Wireless Messaging

Contributed by Mike Masnick

Monday, April 30 2007 @ 6:03pm

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Iran Plans To Filter Immoral SMS And MMS Transmissions

Iran's Telecommunications Ministry has now announced that it plans to start filtering out any immoral video and audio messages sent via mobile phones. Of course, the key sentence in the article is: "It did not give details of the techniques it would use to filter such messages, when it would start or how it would define "immoral" messages." It's one of those things that may sound nice to overly paternalistic governments, but is impossible to accomplish in real life. Do they plan to have people actually reviewing every text and video message before it gets sent? That clearly will never work (or, will simply guarantee that the messaging becomes close to useless). Or, more likely, they'll buy some crappy filtering software to try to pick up on "naughty" words, which won't work very well and will probably just cause more problems than it solves (assuming you believe immoral messages are a problem in the first place). It's always amusing to see governments make claims like this when it's simply impossible for them to actually achieve what they claim.

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Studies
Studies

Contributed by Carlo Longino

Friday, April 27 2007 @ 11:42am

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Telcos' Biggest Marketing Strategy: Inertia

A new study says that half of the US households that moved in the fourth quarter of 2006 dropped their landline service. A quarter of them went wireless-only, 13% switched to cable operators, while 6% chose another type of VoIP provider. The trend away from landlines has been visible for a while, but it's interesting to note how moving accelerates it -- making it appear that many people hang on to their landline just because they already have it, rather than because they really want or need it. For many people, landline service isn't something they want or need, and moving appears to act as a prompt to make them consider that. The stat also helps explain why telcos do so many things they do, like hamstring VoIP providers with patent suits, resist naked DSL, and sell bundles geared towards forcing people to buy landline service they don't want.

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Wi-Fi
Wi-Fi

Contributed by Derek Kerton

Thursday, April 26 2007 @ 6:45pm

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EarthLink Reconsidering Muni-WiFi Business?

As embattled muni Wi-Fi steps back and re-adjusts its role in the world, it seems more and more that the public access aspect of Metro-scale Wi-Fi is seen as a bad idea, while the government operations aspect is growing to be seen as the more suitable fit. Where does that leave you if you are a public access player in this market? Well, that's exactly the question EarthLink is struggling to answer right now. The ISP is going to put future Muni Wi-Fi plans on hold as it evaluates the economics, markets, and performance of its existing four contract cities. That's not to say that Earthlink will bail on Metro Wi-Fi, but it certainly supports our thesis that these networks were over-hyped and need to be re-evaluated. The CFO, Kevin Dotts, says Earthlink is "'not yet able to establish that comfort level' that the investments are really profitable". This willingness to reconsider is one of the advantages of a private/public partnership in that governments are more likely to bluster forward with good ideas and bad alike, since they are politically motivated, and can pass the bill to you later on. Private companies, however, are the canaries in the coal mine; they will bail when the models don't make sense. Earthlink, SureWest, and Google are all good examples of companies with little vested interest in the technology - they just want a good solution. Watch the canaries.

Earthlink may well revitalize their efforts in the space, with adjustments. But I'm not sure where a (largely) consumer ISP is going to find a clear role in a Metro Wi-Fi future with government operations as the anchor subscriber.

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